Refers to a meeting scheduled to take place on 4 April 1984 to discuss “action which might be taken with the United States on the evidence of Soviet concern about recent military exercises” set out in the JIC paper, and suggests that the Prime Minister may wish to see further information before the meeting. Evidence available “shows the concern of the Soviet Union over a possible NATO surprise attack mounted under cover of exercises”. Observes that the Soviet response to Able Archer “does not appear to have formed part of the Soviet exercise programme …[redacted]… it took place over a major Soviet holiday, it had the form of actual military activity and alerts, not just war-gaming, and it was limited geographically to the area, Central Europe, covered by the NATO exercise which the Soviet Union was monitoring”.